Hydrogen Cost Projections Misled by Plant-Scale Effects, Study Finds

A 2025 European study of electrolyzer projects shows that raw experience curves suggest cost declines of 23-32% per doubling of installed capacity, but normalizing for project-size economies cuts those rates to 7-18%. The analysis argues that capacity growth often comes from larger stacks and plants, not from repeated manufacturing of identical units, so standard learning-curve assumptions misrepresent hydrogen's cost trajectory. This distinction matters for forecasting future hydrogen prices and investment decisions.